Prepared by: Dunn Pierre Barnett and Company Canada Ltd. Date: April 23, 2025 https://dpbglobal.com/

Abstract:

 The 2025 Trinidad and Tobago general elections, scheduled for Monday, April 28, are shaping up to be one of the most competitive in recent history. Polling data, voter sentiment, and predictive analytics suggest a potential shift in power from the incumbent People’s National Movement (PNM) to the opposition United National Congress (UNC), led by Kamla Persad-Bissessar. This research paper examines key factors influencing voter behavior, including socioeconomic dissatisfaction, leadership perceptions, racial dynamics, and electoral trends. Using data from Dunn Pierre Barnett and Company Canada Ltd (DPBA), as well as AI-assisted and econometrics  projections, this study forecasts a narrow victory for the UNC, driven by declining PNM support in marginal constituencies and shifting Afro-Trinidadian voter sentiment towards the UNC.

1. Introduction

Trinidad and Tobago’s political landscape has long been dominated by two major parties: the PNM (traditionally Afro-Trinidadian-supported) and the UNC (traditionally Indo-Trinidadian-supported). The 2025 elections come amid economic instability, rising crime, and leadership transitions within the PNM. This paper analyzes:

• Voter sentiment surveys (March 20 – April 15, 2025)
• Constituency-level predictions
• Key issues driving electoral shifts
• AI and statistical modeling projections

About the company:

Dunn Pierre Barnett and Company Canada Ltd. DPBA is a premier management consulting and market research firm headquartered in Canada. With a strong track record in predictive analytics, DPBA has successfully conducted political forecasting, labor market research, and socioeconomic studies across Canada, the Caribbean, and Africa. Notably, DPBA has provided electoral predictions for countries such as Dominica, Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Lucia, Grenada, and Barbados, achieving an accuracy rate exceeding 90% in past election cycles. The firm’s expertise in data science, AI-driven modeling, and regional political dynamics positions it as a leader in election forecasting.

Prediction in the Trinidad and Tobago 2025 elections
UNC	1731
PNM	1893
Never voted	534
Non. NM/UNC	387
Did not vote	137
Diaspora	331
Total	5013

2: Political Landscape Overview

The 2025 elections will determine all 41 seats in the House of Representatives. Historically, the PNM and UNC have dominated the political arena, with the PNM securing 22 seats in the 2020 elections and the UNC obtaining 19. The recent resignation of Prime Minister Keith Rowley and the subsequent appointment of Stuart Young have introduced new dynamics into the political landscape. Additionally, the redrawing of constituency boundaries by the Elections and Boundaries Commission (EBC) has added complexity to the electoral process.

3. Methodology

This study employs a mixed-methods approach, incorporating:

• Survey data from 5,013 respondents (conducted between March 20 and April 15, 2025)
• Historical voting trends (2000-2020 elections)
• AI-assisted predictive models and statistical tools
• Constituency-level analyses (41 seats: 39 in Trinidad, 2 in Tobago)

4. Voter Sentiment and Polling Data:

Prediction in the Trinidad and Tobago 2025 elections
UNC	1731
PNM	1893
Never voted	534
Non.NNP/NDC	387
Did not vote	137
Diaspora	331
Total	5013

Percentage of people sampled in survey

5: Data collected from other polls:

• Guardian Media Poll (April 2025): In 11 marginal constituencies, the UNC leads with 45% support compared to the PNM’s 30%. Third-party support stands at 13%.
• WIC News Online Poll (April 2025): With 2,012 participants, UNC leads with 71% (1,432 votes) and PNM holds 18% (362 votes).

5. Key Factors Influencing the 2025 Elections A. Socioeconomic Dissatisfaction

• 71% of DPBA survey respondents believe a change in government will improve socioeconomic conditions.
• Top concerns: Crime & Public Safety (68%), Economic Decline (59%), Foreign Exchange Shortages (52%), Energy Sector Crisis (45%).

B. Leadership & Party Loyalty

• 64% of PNM voters are dissatisfied with new leadership (Stuart Young).
• 59% of Afro-Trinidadian voters believe PNM leadership should reflect Black cultural identity, leading to protest votes.

C. Racial & Ethnic Voting Shifts

• 81% of Indo-Trinidadians consistently support the UNC.
• Afro-Trinidadian loyalty to the PNM has declined from 65% in 2020 to 49% in 2025.
• Cross-racial support for the UNC is increasing due to economic discontent.

6. Media Influence & Social Media Trends

• 62% of voters rely on social media (Facebook, WhatsApp, TikTok) for political news.
• 45% of respondents report that social media influences their vote, especially among younger demographics.
• 51% of respondents indicate that low PNM presence on the internet
• 65% of respondents that there is a high UNC presence on Social media.

7_Demographic and Regional Dynamics Ethnic and regional affiliations strongly influence voting patterns:

• UNC Strongholds: Chaguanas, Caroni East, Siparia, Oropouche.
• PNM Strongholds: Diego Martin, Port of Spain South, Laventille/Morvant, Arouca.

7. Marginal Constituencies, is expected to favour the UNC

8. AI & Statistical Projections:

 AI-assisted models initially predicted a UNC landslide but were adjusted to reflect a narrow victory based on:

• Declining Afro-Trinidadian loyalty to PNM.
• Economic dissatisfaction in marginal constituencies.
• Higher youth turnout favoring the UNC.

Final Seat Projection:

Party	Projected Seats
UNC	21
PNM	20

9_ The Role of Third Parties:

 Emerging parties, such as the Patriotic Front and the National Transformation Alliance, are gaining traction among voters dissatisfied with the two-party system. Their influence, although limited nationally, could sway outcomes in closely contested constituencies.

10: Media Influence and Information:

Social media platforms play a pivotal role in shaping political discourse. The UNC’s robust digital presence contrasts with the PNM’s limited engagement, particularly among younger voters who dominate online spaces.

 A New Political Era? The 2025 Trinidad and Tobago elections are poised to be a historic turning point. Key takeaways are , economic discontent is the largest driver of voter shifts, Afro-Trinidadian support for the PNM is eroding due to leadership dissatisfaction, marginal constituencies will decide the election, with the UNC gaining key swing seats, social media is reshaping voter behavior, particularly among the youth. The firm is predicting that If current trends hold, Kamla Persad-Bissessar and the UNC will form the next government with a slim majority, signaling a highly competitive political future for Trinidad and Tobago.

Answers to questions in the Survey

Education level of voters surveyed

Ethnicity of Voters surveyed

PNM and UNC voters compared to other voters

Are you satisfied with the current socioeconomic situation in Trinidad and Tobago?

Do you believe a change in government could improve the current situation?

What are your top three areas of concern as a citizen of Trinidad and Tobago? (Select up to 3)

• ☐ Foreign exchange shortage
• ☐ Crime and public safety
• ☐ Deteriorating social and economic conditions
• ☐ Decline of the energy sector
• ☐ Autonomy for Tobago
• ☐ Relationship with Venezuela
• ☐ Fear of international tariffs (e.g., U.S. trade policies)
• ☐ Corruption and governance issues
• ☐ Healthcare system
• ☐ Education system
• ☐ Other (Please specify): ___________

Top concerns of the Trinidad and Tobago voters in the upcoming April 28, elections

References:

1. Dunn Pierre Barnett & Company Canada Ltd. (2025). Trinidad and Tobago general elections 2025: Voter sentiment and predictive analysis report. Internal company publication.
2. https://dpbglobal.com/2025/01/15/the-use-of-science-in-predicting-the-grenada-2022-elections/
3. https://www.thenewtodaygrenada.com/local-news/ndc-10-vs-nnp-5/
4. Elections and Boundaries Commission. (2024). Historical voting data and constituency maps (2000-2020). Retrieved from https://www.ebctt.com
5. Guardian Media Limited. (2025, April). Poll: UNC leads in marginal constituencies ahead of 2025 elections. Retrieved from https://guardian.co.tt
6. WIC News. (2025, April). Shifting trends in Trinidad and Tobago: UNC leads with 1,420 votes, PNM trails behind. Retrieved from https://wicnews.com
7. LoopTT News. (2025, April). Analysis: Socioeconomic issues dominate 2025 Trinidad and Tobago elections campaigns. Retrieved from https://www.looptt.com
8. CNC3 Television Trinidad and Tobago. (2025, April). Election coverage and constituency projections for 2025 general elections. Retrieved from https://www.cnc3.co.tt
9. International Republican Institute. (2023). Caribbean voter behavior and democratic trends (2022-2025). Retrieved from https://www.iri.org
10. Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). (2024). Socioeconomic overview of Trinidad and Tobago. Retrieved from https://www.cepal.org
11. World Bank. (2024). Trinidad and Tobago economic update: Growth, energy, and fiscal challenges. Retrieved from https://www.worldbank.org
12. Caribbean Community (CARICOM) Secretariat. (2025). Political and economic trends in member states: Implications for 2025 elections. Retrieved from https://caricom.org

Questionnaire

Political Opinion Survey: Trinidad and Tobago General Elections 2025

Survey Period: March 20 – April 15, 2025
Purpose: To gather public opinion on key political, social, and economic issues ahead of the upcoming elections.

Confidentiality Notice: All responses will remain confidential and will be used strictly for research purposes.

Section 1: Voter Information

1. Are you a registered voter in Trinidad and Tobago?
   • ☐ Yes
   • ☐ No
2. Do you intend to vote in the upcoming General Elections on Monday, April 28, 2025?
   • ☐ Yes
   • ☐ No
   • ☐ Undecided
3. Which political party do you currently support or lean towards?
   • ☐ People’s National Movement (PNM)
   • ☐ United National Congress (UNC)
   • ☐ Other (Please specify): ___________
   • ☐ Undecided

Section 2: Media Consumption and Political Information

4. How do you primarily get your political information? (Select all that apply)
   • ☐ Television
   • ☐ Radio
   • ☐ Newspapers (Print or Online)
   • ☐ Social Media (Facebook, WhatsApp, TikTok, Twitter, etc.)
   • ☐ Political Rallies/Meetings
   • ☐ Friends/Family discussions
   • ☐ Other (Please specify): ___________
5. How much influence does social media have on your political opinions?
   • ☐ A great deal
   • ☐ Somewhat
   • ☐ Very little
   • ☐ None at all
6. Which social media platform do you rely on most for political updates?
   • ☐ Facebook
   • ☐ WhatsApp
   • ☐ TikTok
   • ☐ Instagram
   • ☐ Twitter/X
   • ☐ YouTube
   • ☐ Other (Please specify): ___________

Section 3: National Issues and Governance

8. Are you satisfied with the current socioeconomic situation in Trinidad and Tobago?
   • ☐ Very satisfied
   • ☐ Somewhat satisfied
   • ☐ Neutral
   • ☐ Somewhat dissatisfied
   • ☐ Very dissatisfied
9. Do you believe a change in government could improve the current situation?
   • ☐ Yes
   • ☐ No
   • ☐ Unsure
10. What are your top three areas of concern as a citizen of Trinidad and Tobago? (Select up to 3)
    • ☐ Foreign exchange shortage
    • ☐ Crime and public safety
    • ☐ Deteriorating social and economic conditions
    • ☐ Decline of the energy sector
    • ☐ Autonomy for Tobago
    • ☐ Relationship with Venezuela
    • ☐ Fear of international tariffs (e.g., U.S. trade policies)
    • ☐ Corruption and governance issues
    • ☐ Healthcare system
    • ☐ Education system
    • ☐ Other (Please specify):

11. How would you rate the current government’s handling of crime?

• ☐ Excellent
• ☐ Good
• ☐ Fair
• ☐ Poor
• ☐ Very poor

Section 4: Party Perceptions and Preferences

11. Would you like to give the People’s National Movement (PNM) another 5 years to govern Trinidad and Tobago?

• ☐ Yes
• ☐ No
• ☐ Undecided

11. For PNM supporters: How concerned are you about the new  leadership within the PNM?

• ☐ Very concerned
• ☐ Somewhat concerned
• ☐ Not concerned
• ☐ Prefer not to answer

11. Do you believe that the PNM is successfully representing the interests of its traditional support base?

• ☐ Yes, fully
• ☐ Partially
• ☐ No, not at all
• ☐ Unsure

11. Do you believe racial or ethnic identity still plays a significant role in political support in Trinidad and Tobago?

• ☐ Yes
• ☐ No
• ☐ Somewhat
• ☐ Prefer not to answer

11. What is the most important quality you seek in a political leader?

• ☐ Integrity and honesty
• ☐ Ability to manage the economy
• ☐ Strong leadership in crime prevention
• ☐ Focus on social services (health, education)
• ☐ Vision for national unity
• ☐ Other (Please specify): ___________

Section 5: Election Outlook

16. Which factor will most influence your vote in the 2025 elections?

• Party Loyalty
• Leadership Candidate
• Economic Policies
• Crime & Security Plans
• Other (specify): ___________

16. Do you think the election results will be free and fair?

• Yes
• No
• Unsure

16. If elections were held today, which party do you think would win?

• PNM
• UNC
• Other
• Too close to call

Thank you for participating in this survey! Your input is valuable and will help contribute to a better understanding of public opinion in Trinidad and Tobago

More about the company elections prediction success  technology

https://dpbglobal.com/2025/01/15/the-use-of-science-in-predicting-the-grenada-2022-elections/https://www.thenewtodaygrenada.com/local-news/ndc-10-vs-nnp-5/