Press Release: Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 2025 General Elections Report

Canadian Firm Predicts Tight Race in SVG’s 2025 General Elections

Unity Labour Party (ULP) Holds Narrow Lead Over the New Democratic Party (NDP), According to a New National Survey

Toronto, Canada / Kingstown, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines – November 12, 2025

Overview

The November 27, 2025, General Elections in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (SVG) are shaping up to be one of the most competitive in recent history.

A new national voter perception survey by Dunn Pierre Barnett & Company Canada Ltd. (DPBA)  led by Dr. C. Justine Pierre shows the Unity Labour Party (ULP) holding a slim but statistically significant lead over the New Democratic Party (NDP).

DPBA has built a strong reputation for accurately forecasting Caribbean elections, including the Grenada (2022), Trinidad and Tobago (2025), and Guyana, Suriname, and Jamaica (2025) outcomes.

Key Findings

  • ULP projected seats: 8 ± 1

  • NDP projected seats: 7 ± 1

  • Public satisfaction score: 5.49 / 10

  • Probability of ULP retaining power: 64%

  • Probability of NDP forming government: 33%

  • Likelihood of a hung parliament: 3%

The survey reveals:

  • Women show stronger support for the ULP

  • Men and younger voters (18–34) lean toward the NDP

  • Urban dissatisfaction contrasts with rural loyalty to the ruling party

  • Economic sentiment and inflation remain key electoral drivers

Expert Insight

These findings point to a finely balanced political environment,said Dr. Pierre.
A one-point shift in national voter satisfaction could determine which party forms the next government.

Dr. Pierre highlights that women are the statistical foundation of ULP’s stability, while the NDP’s potential victory depends on mobilizing younger and urban voters seeking change.

Report Summary

The 2025 DPBA National Voter Perception Survey:

  • Conducted October 1–30, 2025

  • Sample size: 2,402 respondents

  • Coverage: All 15 constituencies

  • Methodology: Demographic modeling, historical voting analysis, and Markov Chain Transition simulations

Download the Full Report

The full DPBA 2025 National Election Forecast Report for Saint Vincent and the Grenadines is available for download.

Availability: November 10–28, 2025

 Price: $29.99